Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.000330 0.000371 0.000414 0.000465 0.000523 0.000587 0.000662
2024-12-22 0.000242 0.000296 0.000359 0.000441 0.000542 0.000666 0.000828
2024-12-29 0.000201 0.000261 0.000337 0.000442 0.000583 0.000768 0.001032
2025-01-05 0.000179 0.000245 0.000333 0.000460 0.000644 0.000900 0.001290
2025-01-12 0.000154 0.000219 0.000311 0.000450 0.000661 0.000971 0.001471
2025-01-19 0.000131 0.000193 0.000284 0.000428 0.000654 0.001004 0.001598
2025-01-26 0.000120 0.000182 0.000276 0.000432 0.000688 0.001101 0.001839
2025-02-02 0.000114 0.000178 0.000280 0.000453 0.000750 0.001251 0.002188
2025-02-09 0.000103 0.000167 0.000268 0.000449 0.000769 0.001329 0.002425
2025-02-16 0.000096 0.000159 0.000263 0.000454 0.000803 0.001439 0.002736
2025-02-23 0.000088 0.000150 0.000254 0.000449 0.000820 0.001518 0.002997
2025-03-02 0.000082 0.000142 0.000247 0.000450 0.000846 0.001617 0.003315
2025-03-09 0.000077 0.000136 0.000241 0.000451 0.000875 0.001731 0.003695
2025-03-16 0.000068 0.000124 0.000225 0.000432 0.000861 0.001756 0.003887
2025-03-23 0.000064 0.000118 0.000220 0.000434 0.000892 0.001881 0.004333
2025-03-30 0.000062 0.000117 0.000223 0.000452 0.000959 0.002094 0.005031
2025-04-06 0.000057 0.000110 0.000213 0.000442 0.000963 0.002165 0.005392
2025-04-13 0.000051 0.000100 0.000198 0.000420 0.000936 0.002161 0.005555
2025-04-20 0.000049 0.000097 0.000196 0.000424 0.000972 0.002313 0.006169
2025-04-27 0.000048 0.000097 0.000200 0.000445 0.001049 0.002579 0.007164
2025-05-04 0.000045 0.000092 0.000194 0.000440 0.001064 0.002690 0.007731
2025-05-11 0.000043 0.000090 0.000192 0.000445 0.001103 0.002870 0.008549
2025-05-18 0.000040 0.000086 0.000187 0.000441 0.001118 0.002985 0.009185